2010 Fantasy Football Quarterback (QB) Auction Draft – To Splurge Or Not To Splurge?
The question facing every fantasy football player this year is whether they should be spending big auction dollars or an early draft pick on top quarterbacks. In most seasons, that’s a question to ask yourself, and 2010 is no different.
It can be argued that there are 4 levels of QB quality to choose from. The top 3 tiers are made up of the top 10 quarterbacks, so if you don’t want to pay to play, then 11-25 should be where you’re looking for your diamond in the rough. I don’t think it is the worst strategy; I call it a rotisserie QB, the idea is that you either grab your QB in the later rounds or just spend $ 1 or $ 2 at an auction and play the waiver wire every week to find a QB with a good defensive showdown to exploit. It can be a winning strategy and you can find a quarterback along the way. It allows you to concentrate many more resources in your other places on the list.
If you are committed to a top grade quarterback who, in my opinion, there are only 9 or 10 (depending on Favre) that are better than the rotisserie method, then you need to decide how many resources you are willing to put into the position. Now, in a 10-team league, everyone could get a decent QB, but in a 12-team or more leagues there aren’t enough to go around, so they’re a bit more of a commodity.
Let’s start at the top and go down according to the Fantasy Fortunes website:
1. Aaron Rodgers $ 45
2. Drew Brees $ 45
These two represent the biggest advantage in the position. Rodgers is a big part of the Packers offense, which seems to be going strong again this year. He throws a lot and, as a bonus, he runs more than anyone else at the position, amassing 5 touchdowns last year. I expect similar rush numbers again and slightly worse passes.
Brees has the keys to what could be the highest-scoring offense of 2010, and they’re loaded with weapons. It should continue to bring in huge numbers. I think he’s a little more confident than Rodgers.
The next step down is
3. Peyton Manning $ 35
Manning is a top-tier quarterback who sells at a $ 10 discount. His guns are still in place and he’s the model for consistency. A very safe play and he has to be hungry after last season. The concern here is that they tend to sit it down late in the season, hurting Fantasy owners when championship week rolls around. I’m not that worried this year as I don’t think the Colts will block home field that quickly this year. I’m a little concerned with Rodgers if Favre doesn’t come back because without Favre the Vikings won’t pressure the Pack to win the division.
The upcoming quarterbacks represent a significant level jump:
4. Matt Schaub $ 25
5. Phillip Rivers $ 21
6. Tom Brady $ 18
7. Tony Romo $ 13
These 4 are executing very good offenses. Schaub appears on the verge of exploding, although the injury has been a problem. Rivers has shown he can do it and represents decent value. Brady has never been this cheap even though Moss is getting old, Brady at this price could be stealing from the QB field. I included Romo at this level because I think we have him a bit underrated and his connection to Austin could make for a great season.
Our last level of quarterbacks that I would be willing to devote significant resources to before leaving the rotisserie quarterback job is as follows:
8. Brett Favre $ 11
9. Donovan McNabb $ 10
10. Joe Flacco $ 9
There are clearly guys underneath this that are better than the exemption cable, but I don’t know if they’re worth what you’ll have to give up to get them. Favre scares me and I would personally leave him alone, although if he repeats his performance from last year someone will get great value out of him. McNabb is getting into a new offense and it’s hard to read, but he has the talent to put up good numbers. Flacco, on the other hand, adds Boldin and he could really do his thing this year. I’ll mark it as a game of value if I can get it at the right price.
What should guide your decision when selecting a quarterback is how many points of separation you win or lose by choosing one quarterback over another. If you think Aaron Rodgers will beat the $ 10- $ 11 QBs by 60 points, then you need to decide whether an additional $ 35 on his currently scheduled RB # 2 will give him 60 more points than the guy he would otherwise have on the # 2RB slot. I’d say at the very least you need to get the same breakpoints in QB or more. It’s easier to replace a starting QB with someone who scores consistent points than it is to replace a RB with a consistent scorer. But if you think you can get quality back-up RBs and still be able to afford the top-tier QBs, then I tell you to go for it because they offer a safe place to get a good separation from your competition.
If you skip the top quarterbacks and go steakhouse this year, be sure to check Fantasy Fortunes every week for FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) bid amounts. We will give advice on who to add and what to bid.
We will also update the player’s season value weekly with auction values to help you assess the value of your team and evaluate trades.
Good luck with your draft or auction.