2010 NBA Free Agency

July 1, 2010 marks the beginning of the biggest free agent bonanza the NBA (or any professional league) has ever seen. I’m a Sixers fan, so regardless of who goes where, my team will still suck. However, I can’t wait for the final destinations to be determined.

Let’s face it though, this free agent period is about two players; Dwayne Wade and LeBron James. Yes, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, and Dirk Nowitzki are all impact players, but Bosh will follow D-Wade or LeBron (probably LeBron), Pierce and Dirk are beyond their prime, and Amare and Joe Johnson are amazing NBA talents with no defensive genes. So really, Wade and James are the big rocks that get dropped into the jar first and everyone else is one of the smaller rocks that gets dropped around them.

From where we are now (36 hours to 7/1), the Bulls and Heat are the favorites to land the most prized talent in this free agent pool. The most frequent rumor is that the three maximum contract players (Wade, LeBron, Bosh) will join forces in Miami. The common response is “game over,” as in “no one else will smell an NBA title for the next five to eight years.”

If all three come together in Miami, they will undoubtedly become the most talented team in the league. Having two of the top five players in the league would also make them extremely difficult to eliminate in a seven-game series come playoff time. The only real detriment here is depth. Many have already noted that the Heat would have a hard time filling out their roster with anything other than an NBA journeyman or undrafted rookies. Others have argued that solid NBA players will gladly take pay cuts to play with LeBron and Wade. I tend to agree with the latter for two reasons. First, who wouldn’t want to join that team? None of the players are notorious jerks or lousy teammates, Miami is a nice place, and there’s no personal income tax (I heard). Second, a perceived lack of depth wouldn’t matter too much. Bosh, LeBron and Wade are in their physical prime. They can rack up big minutes throughout the season; Although I highly doubt that is the case. As bad as the Eastern Conference is, reclaiming the home field during the playoffs won’t be too difficult.

That said, there is a problem. No matter how good a team Bosh, James and Wade made, how long could they sustain the best? I would say not much. Sure, they’ll probably win a title, maybe even two, but superstars don’t usually last together. Both Wade and LeBron want to be the ideal guy. As ESPN’s Bill Simmons argues, there can only be one alpha dog on any basketball team. Who will claim that role for the Heat? Will it be Wade because he’s been in Miami his entire career? Or will it be James because he is the “Chosen One”? What if Wade thinks he’s its team and LeBron tries to take it from him or vice versa? Those who argue against these possibilities because the two played together in harmony at the 2008 Summer Olympics are ignorant. Both players were there for a common goal and, more importantly, for a defined period of time. Coming off the bench for a month to help his team win a gold medal was an easy decision for Wade. Putting off another superstar for 9 months a year for the next half decade is a whole different story. So I’m not convinced they can get past a title or two. After a degree, egos will begin to grow, the desire to be great will diminish, and selfishness will kick in. Selfishness leads to disruption, and disruption leads to confrontation over team leadership, and before you know it, you’re the 2004 Los Angeles Lakers.

So where do I want LeBron and Wade to end up? I’m glad you asked. Here are the top 3 scenarios for how I’d like to see the 2010 free agent market, as it relates to LeBron and Wade (in reverse order):

Scenario 3

LeBron James goes to New York and makes basketball in the Big Apple relevant again for the first time since Patrick Ewing’s flat top. I’m not a fan of the Knicks. I actually hate them, but sports are always more exciting when there’s a great market team that we all love to cheer for. I can’t root against the Knicks right now. Doing so would be like expecting a second grader to get hit at recess. If LeBron goes to New York and brings one of the other elite free agents with him, the Knicks will immediately become contenders in the Eastern Conference and I can once again root against New York with all the disdain I ever had. by Ewing and John Starks. As a Sixers fan, what more could you ask for? (Well, other than that my team made some kind of progress after half a decade of stagnation/regression.)

The three (Bosh, LeBron, Wade) who finished in Miami could also qualify here. It wouldn’t necessarily make the Eastern Conference very competitive, but it would be fascinating to see how LeBron and Wade progress or drift together over the years.

scenario 2

LeBron James travels to Chicago along with elite free agent forward X and Chris Bosh and “pretty stinky” free agent X join Dwyane Wade in Miami. As mentioned above, Bosh is likely to follow LeBron. However, Bosh is the best power forward available and the Heat need frontcourt talent. For my own enjoyment, I want Bosh with Wade in Miami. I love this scenario because LeBron joins a very young team in Chicago with an already talented core, and hopefully the free-agent additions in Miami would give Wade an equally talented group. This would make the Eastern Conference Finals one of the most exciting series in all of sports for years to come. Raise your hand if you don’t want to see LeBron James and Dwyane Wade square off in a once-a-year seven-game series for the right to advance to the NBA Finals. Any? Any? I do not think so. (I also secretly love this scenario because I personally think Wade is the better player and I’d love to see him top LeBron in an annual matchup in a seven-game series. By the way, I just added “LeBron” and “Dwyane” to my Microsoft Word dictionary – THAT’S how important they are).

Scenario 1

This is by far my favorite scenario and unfortunately also the least realistic. Ok, it’s virtually impossible. Picture this: LeBron, Bosh and Wade have a gentleman’s agreement to take less money and join forces in Miami. Just before everything becomes official, however, LeBron begins to have second thoughts about sharing the spotlight with Wade and secretly considers going to Chicago. Wade finds out and makes a preemptive strike and signs with the Bulls. (Very, very, very unlikely because Wade publicly insulted the Bulls front office, but let me continue.) LeBron is obviously furious and signs the next best thing; a young and talented nucleus in New Jersey. Because neither the Bulls nor the Nets can sign two max-contract players, Bosh sits out and signs with Team X (back in the dark, Mr. Bosh). Wade returns to his hometown of Chicago. LeBron finally ends up in Brooklyn. The NBA has two of its most marketable players in two of its biggest markets. Even better, LeBron is finally starting to take the game more seriously simply to beat Wade, and Wade always knows LeBron is looking for him. (How motivated would LeBron be? Imagine him going toe-to-toe with Delonte West, who allegedly slept with LeBron’s mom, in a seven-game series every year, only Wade doesn’t suck and doesn’t have West’s creepy facial hair.) ). (and this is my favorite part), the NBA has two super dumb stars who don’t like each other anymore. No more friendly handshakes before big games. No more kissing dates with each other for the media. No sir. I’m all for peace and friendship, but I think we need a little animosity in the NBA. Due to their feud, the Nets and Bulls evolve as the most heated rivalry in the league, with LeBron and Wade fueling the fires. Every spring we get invited to an Eastern Conference final between two amazing players who don’t get along. Double triple doubles, insults through the media and legendary performances as LeBron and Wade battle title for title for the next half decade? Yes please! Will it happen? No, but tell me, wouldn’t that be the most surprising outcome of the 2010 NBA Free Agent Bonanza? you can not